A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
