Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
